Forget the 70% rule: your retirement spending number is in your bank statements.

Ask a planner what you will spend in retirement and the usual answer is a percentage of your paycheck. It is a fair first guess for a population and a poor one for a single household, because it never looks at what that household actually buys. Here is how to replace it with a number built from your own bank statements, and what the public data says to expect when you do.

What is the 70% rule, and where does it fall short?

It is a rule of thumb for how much income to replace. J.P. Morgan Asset Management writes that the financial services industry "has long-used 70% to 80% as a reasonable estimate" (J.P. Morgan Asset Management, April 24, 2025). Michael Kitces explained the logic in 2012: the research measures income, but take-home pay after taxes and saving is what a household already spends, so the ratio is really a spending-replacement ratio. He put it near 70% for affluent households and 80% for moderate means, and noted that it assumes a steady standard of living in retirement (Kitces, March 21, 2012).

That is a population average, applied to you. It cannot see your mortgage, your health, whether you plan to travel, or which of your costs end when your job does. Because it is a share of your income, it moves with your pay rather than with what you buy. For a plan, the number you need is spending, and the most reliable source for that is your own bank statements.

How does spending change as people age?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2024 Consumer Expenditure Survey puts average spending at $78,535 a year per household overall, $65,354 where the reference person is 65 to 74, and $55,834 at 75 and older. Healthcare moves the other way: it grows from 7.9% of spending overall to 11.8% at 65 to 74 and 14.2% at 75 and older. (BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys, 2024 annual means.)

Two cautions. These are averages across different households at one moment, not one household followed through time, and averages hide wide spread. Treat them as a sanity check on your own number, not a forecast: spending running 15% lower at 75 is a pattern in the data, not a promise about you.

How do I find my real number from my statements?

1. Gather twelve months, not three. Property tax, insurance, car registration and trips arrive once or twice a year and can miss a quarter entirely. If you only have a quarter in hand, list your yearly bills separately and add them.
2. Sort every dollar into the same categories your plan will use: housing, utilities, food, transportation, healthcare, insurance, household, personal, leisure, giving, travel and other.
3. Leave out what a plan adds on its own: income tax, Roth conversion tax, health insurance premiums (ACA before 65, Medicare Part B after), and loan payments. One-time big costs, like a new car, belong in planned large expenses, not in the yearly number.
4. Then ask of each line: does this stop when I stop working, or grow? Commuting and work clothes may end. Healthcare and travel may not.
5. Add it up. That yearly total is your spending number. Everything downstream, from the success rate to your retirement date, is built on it.

What does Runway's spending page do?

It does the sorting for you. In the free tier, the itemized budget builder lets you enter each line with an amount and how often it comes up (monthly, every 3 months, every 6 months, yearly, or every N years), group lines into categories you can rename and add to, and plan trips by region. The budget's yearly total becomes the plan's spending number.

In Pro, the builder can start from researched estimates for your ages, state, housing situation and vehicles, so you edit a reasonable default instead of facing a blank page. Each line carries its source and stays editable. The estimates draw on public U.S. government data: the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey (2024), BEA regional price parities (2024), Census American Community Survey state rents and property taxes (2024), and EIA state electricity bills (2024). The trip estimator uses GSA per diem rates for domestic destinations and the State Department's foreign per diem rates.

For the Comfortable style, $22,860 a year comes from monthly bills and $33,660 from periodic costs, across 38 lines. Lean, Comfortable and Generous change only the flexible and discretionary lines (dining out, clothing, hobbies, giving), and those multipliers are Runway planning assumptions, not data. The estimates are averages for households like yours, not quotes: the page says so on every line, and your own bills beat any average. The supplemental health insurance lines in particular can come in below real quotes.

Why does the spending number matter so much?

Because everything else is measured at it. Runway's sample couple (Pat, 65, and Alex, 64, with $1,460,000 saved, both still working until 2030) shows how much. Spending $95,000 a year, the earliest date that keeps a 90% chance their money lasts is July 1, 2028. Move spending by $10,000 either way and the date moves with it (see the retirement countdown for how these dates are found):

Ten thousand dollars a year moved the 90% date 18 months earlier at $85,000 and 29 months later at $105,000. That is why a guessed spending number produces a guessed date. The same number sets how much a conversion can safely be (the best Roth bracket depends on spending level, see when a Roth conversion pays off) and what a sustainable withdrawal looks like (see how much you can safely spend).

What happens after the budget exists?

A budget written today is a prediction. On Track (Pro) compares it with what you actually spend. You log spending against the same categories, by month or by year: a monthly check-in, a quick add-an-expense entry, and a one-tap close when a month went about as budgeted. The page shows each category's budget against what is logged so far and where it is heading for the year. When a category's logged average differs from its budget, On Track offers to update that line, and nothing changes until you accept. Accepting recalculates your plan. Reminders are opt-in, and each budget year stays on record as it was.

How were these numbers calculated?

• Spending by age: BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys, calendar-year 2024 annual means by age of the reference person, per consumer unit, copied from BLS's published tables (retrieved October 7, 2026). Shares are each category divided by that column's total.
• Starting estimate: computed by Runway's budget estimator. It starts from the BLS average for ages 65 to 74 (or 75 and older), scales it to the household's size, adjusts for state price levels and local rent, property tax and electricity where a state source exists, and applies the style multiplier. It excludes income tax, Roth conversion tax, ACA premiums, Medicare Part B and IRMAA, long-term care and debt payments, which the plan adds separately.
• Retirement dates: Runway's retirement-countdown search on the sample couple. Spending is held at each amount in today's prices; both people retire together; Social Security claiming ages are the engine's best pair (68 and 67); no Roth conversions; a long-term-care episode is assumed near the end of the plan; federal tax only; plan to age 95; 2,000 simulated market paths per retirement year. Dates are computed as of October 16, 2026.
• The 70% to 80% rule: quoted from J.P. Morgan Asset Management and Kitces as linked above. We did not recompute it.

Frequently asked questions

What is the 70% rule for retirement?

It is a rule of thumb that you will need to replace 70% to 80% of your pre-retirement income. J.P. Morgan Asset Management says the financial services industry has long used that range, and Michael Kitces has argued it is really a spending-replacement ratio, near 70% for affluent households and 80% for moderate means.

Does spending really fall in retirement?

On average, yes. In the Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2024 survey, households aged 65 to 74 spent $65,354 a year and those 75 and older $55,834, against $78,535 for all households. Healthcare grows from 7.9% of spending overall to 11.8% at 65 to 74 and 14.2% at 75 and older. These are averages of different households, not a forecast for yours.

How many months of statements do I need to find my retirement spending?

Twelve. Property tax, insurance, car registration and trips come once or twice a year and can miss a three-month window. If you only have a quarter, list your yearly bills separately and add them.

What should a retirement spending budget leave out?

Income tax (including tax on Roth conversions), health insurance premiums (ACA before 65, Medicare Part B after), and loan payments, because Runway's plan adds those on its own, and one-time big costs, which belong in planned large expenses. Including them in the budget would count them twice.