Tracking your retirement plan: actual vs. projected spending, and when to adjust

A retirement plan is a forecast built from today's balances, today's spending and assumptions about markets. The day after you make it, it starts to age: markets move, you spend a little more or less than you planned, and you get a year older. Runway's On Track page exists to keep the plan connected to reality. This guide explains what it checks, what the numbers mean, and a way to decide when a gap is worth acting on.

Why does a plan need tracking?

Three things drift. Balances drift because markets never earn exactly the planned return, and because real spending differs from planned. Ages drift because the plan was calculated on a particular day. And prices drift because the engine works in today's dollars while your statements are in the dollars of whatever year it is. The On Track page's own description is to bring your balances up to date "a couple of times a year" and log what you spend, "so the plan keeps working from real numbers instead of old ones."

What does the account check-in do?

The check-in starts every account at the balance the plan expected it to have today. That estimate comes from the plan's own projection, scaled for inflation since the plan was last updated, so in the common case you only fix the accounts that differ. You enter the real balances, and Runway shows how far ahead or behind the plan you are in total. Saving writes the new balances and your current ages into the plan and recalculates it, so every page and every success figure reflects where you actually stand. If nothing has changed, nothing moves: for the sample couple, entering exactly the projected balances a year on gives a 99.4% chance of lasting, the same as at the start.

What is variance, and what does it tell me?

The yearly spending log lets you record what you actually spent and withdrew in a calendar year next to what the plan projected. The variance is the gap as a percentage: (actual − projected) ÷ projected. A plus sign means more than planned, and spending less than planned shows in green because it leaves more cushion. Spending and withdrawals are different numbers. In the sample plan's first year the target is $95,000 of spending, but the plan withdraws $100,917, because it also pays $3,482 for the healthcare bridge before Medicare and $2,435 of Medicare premiums (the federal tax is $0 that year).

A single year's variance is a clue, not a verdict. A $104,500 year against a $95,000 plan (+10.0%) matters if it's the new normal, because the plan's spending number is then wrong and should be updated to the real one. It matters much less if it was a one-time cost, such as a roof or a trip.

How far behind plan is too far? A worked year

Take the sample couple (Pat 65, Alex 64, $1.46 million, $95,000 of spending, plan through 95) and run one year three ways. The plan expects the year to end with $1,436,153. Here is what happens if the portfolio instead returns a flat 0%, rises 10%, or falls 15% after inflation, and the couple then does a check-in (Pat 66, Alex 65) with the balances they actually have:

The first lesson is that behind plan isn't failing. A flat year puts the couple $77,070 behind the plan and costs 0.6 point of success. The second is that a bad year does real but bounded damage: a 15% fall costs 6.2 points (99.4% to 93.2%). The third is that a small, early response goes a long way: trimming spending by 5% recovers 4.3 of those 6.2 points, to 97.5%. Waiting doesn't have to be costly, but acting early is cheap.

When should I adjust?

• Check on a schedule, not on headlines. Once or twice a year is the rhythm On Track is built for. Markets are noisy day to day, and a plan shouldn't swing with them.
• Judge the updated chance, not the gap. After a check-in, look at the new chance of lasting against the level you set for yourself (how to read it). If it is still comfortable, do nothing.
• If it has slipped, start small. A modest trim, pausing a discretionary expense, or using guardrails, as the table above shows, often recovers most of the loss.
• If spending is consistently above plan, change the plan. Update the spending target to what you really spend. A plan built on a number you don't follow isn't telling you anything.
• Re-check after a big change. A health event, a house sale, an inheritance or a change in income deserves a check-in right away rather than at the next scheduled one.

What does this leave out?

• The market year is a single return. The worked example applies one blended real return to the portfolio for the year. Real years differ account by account.
• Everything else is held fixed. The check-in scenarios keep the original assumptions, Social Security ages and spending target, apart from the trim shown.
• It needs your numbers. The check-in is only as good as the balances you enter, and the plan can't know about money you move in or out unless you update it.
• Assumptions still matter. The new chance of lasting rests on the same return and volatility assumptions (see what to put in).

How were these numbers computed?

All figures are Runway's engine on the sample couple: married filing jointly, Social Security claimed at 69 and 68, plan through 95, 60% stocks and 40% bonds with stocks at 7.5% and bonds at 2.93% a year after inflation (a blended expected return of 5.7%) and volatilities of 16% and 6%, long-term-care costs left out. The expected year-end balance is the year-by-year projection. The three market years apply a blended real return of +10%, 0% and −15% for the first year only; the "after the check-in" figures rerun the plan from those year-end balances with both people a year older, using 2,000 simulated markets with seed 2026. The 5% trim lowers the $95,000 spending target to $90,250. All amounts are in today's dollars.