Your 2027 Social Security raise will be smaller than the headline — here's the net math.
Every fall the same headline runs: "Social Security recipients get their biggest raise in years." The headline number is the gross. What lands in your bank account is the gross minus Medicare, and for some retirees the Medicare side of the ledger is bigger than the raise itself. Here's the arithmetic, using the numbers available as of October 2, 2026 — before the official COLA is announced.
How big will the 2027 Social Security COLA be?
The Social Security Administration announces the 2027 COLA on October 14, 2026, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September's CPI. Until then it's a forecast: as of September 11, both The Senior Citizens League and independent analyst Mary Johnson projected 3.5%, which would be the biggest increase in three years, up from 2.8% for 2026. The COLA is set by the CPI-W averaged over July, August and September, and two of those three months are already in.
According to the SSA's own monthly statistical snapshot, the average retired-worker benefit is $2,087.52 a month. At 3.5%, that's $2,087.52 × 0.035 = $73.06 more per month, or $876.76 over a year. (The Senior Citizens League's own $67.90 figure uses a lower average of $1,940.08 that covers all beneficiaries, not just retired workers.)
How much does Medicare Part B take out of the raise?
Most beneficiaries have the Part B premium deducted straight from their Social Security check. The standard premium is $202.90 a month in 2026, per the SSA. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report, published on the CMS Trustees Report page, projects $209.50 for 2027, up $6.60. CMS sets the official figure in the fall; some private forecasts put it above $215, so treat the Trustees' number as a floor rather than a ceiling.
Net raise on the average retired-worker check
3.5% COLA on $2,087.52 a month, minus the increase in the standard Part B premium over $202.90.
| Per month | Per year | |
| Gross raise (3.5%) | $73.06 | $876.76 |
| Net, Part B at $209.50 (Trustees' projection) | $66.46 | $797.56 |
| Net, if Part B lands at $215 | $60.96 | $731.56 |
| Each 0.1 point of COLA is worth | $2.09 | $25.05 |
That gross raise takes the average check to about $2,160.58 a month. Your own numbers will differ: your benefit isn't the average, and not everyone has Part B taken from their check.
What changes in Medicare Part D for 2027?
The final CY 2027 rate announcement from CMS sets the Part D annual out-of-pocket threshold at $2,400, up from $2,100 in 2026, and the standard deductible at $700, up from $615. If you're on drugs expensive enough to hit the cap, that's up to $300 more a year in out-of-pocket drug costs — a bigger bite out of the raise than the Part B increase if you're one of those people, and nothing at all if you aren't.
Why can IRMAA cost more than the whole raise?
IRMAA is the income-related monthly adjustment amount, a surcharge on Part B and Part D premiums for higher earners. It's based on your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) from two years earlier: your 2027 surcharge is set by your 2025 tax return, and the surcharge you'll pay in 2028 depends on the income you report this year. A Roth conversion, a large capital gain, or a final-year payout at retirement can each push one year's MAGI over a line and trigger a full year of surcharges later.
CMS hasn't published the 2027 IRMAA thresholds yet; they're normally announced in the fall. The table below uses the 2026 thresholds — the first tier starts at $109,000 of MAGI for single filers and $218,000 for joint filers — as an estimate, so the 2027 cutoffs will be a little higher. The dollar amounts are annual, Part B and Part D combined.
| 2026 IRMAA tier (MAGI over…) | Single: extra per year | Joint: extra per year (both on Medicare) |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1: $109,000 single / $218,000 joint | $1,148.40 | $2,296.80 |
| Tier 2: $137,000 / $274,000 | $2,884.80 | $5,769.60 |
| Tier 3: $171,000 / $342,000 | $4,620.00 | $9,240.00 |
| Tier 4: $205,000 / $410,000 | $6,355.20 | $12,710.40 |
| Tier 5: $500,000 / $750,000 | $6,936.00 | $13,872.00 |
Compare the first row to the $797.56 net raise above: for a single filer, crossing the first line by a single dollar costs more than the COLA gives you. That's why a Roth conversion that looks smart on income tax alone can backfire two years later — see how the 2027 projected limits affect conversion sizing and the Roth conversion guide for the other half of that trade-off.
What can you do with this before year-end?
- Budget the net raise, not the gross. Subtract the Part B change (and Part D, if it applies to you) before you decide what the COLA lets you spend.
- Check your 2026 MAGI now. Your 2028 Medicare premiums are set by it, and there are still three months to manage it. A conversion planned for December is worth checking against the tier lines first.
- Remember the deadline. Once the year closes, the income that counts toward IRMAA is locked in.
How were these numbers calculated?
- Average benefit ($2,087.52): SSA monthly statistical snapshot, retired workers.
- COLA (3.5%): a forecast from The Senior Citizens League and Mary Johnson as of September 11, 2026, not the official figure. The gross and net amounts are straight arithmetic on it.
- Part B: $202.90 for 2026 (SSA); $209.50 for 2027 is the Medicare Trustees' projection and $215 is an illustrative higher case, neither official.
- Part D: final CMS figures for 2027.
- IRMAA surcharges: computed with Runway's planning engine from the 2026 CMS tiers, with Part B and Part D combined and the joint column assuming both spouses are on Medicare. 2027 thresholds and amounts will differ once CMS publishes them.
This page will be updated when the official COLA and 2027 Medicare figures are announced.
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